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U.S. dollar has retreated from 2-month highs

Oktober 05, 2020 13:00

U.S. dollar has retreated from 2-month highs

The U.S. dollar experienced negative sentiment last week, but the depreciation was small and the currency index remained above a 50-day moving average.

USD

Economic indicators from the world's largest economy were positive:

  • The country's consumer confidence index rose to 101.8 from 86.3 points, the highest level in March
  • The labour market saw further improvement, with 661,000 new jobs created last month
  • The unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to 7.9%
  • The ISM manufacturing PMI index was 55.4 points and showed expansion
  • The number of new jobless claims remained at 0.84 million a week

The number of new cases of coronavirus remains high:

  • The number of cases in the U.S. remains stable and the 7-day average is about 43,000 per day
  • In India, the spread of the virus continues to show a slowdown and the weekly average has fallen from 85 to 82 thousand
  • Brazil has also seen a slowdown, albeit a slight one, from 28 to 27 thousand a day
  • In Russia, the situation deteriorated significantly with the rate of new cases rising steeply from 6 to more than 9 thousand

In the old continent, there is a similar trend. In Spain, the number of cases fell to 4,000, in France, growth stabilized at 11,000, and in Italy, a moderate rise to 2,000 was seen.

Euro

The main currency pair EUR/USD appreciated moderately to 1.175. Economic data in Europe was positive, with the manufacturing PMI index at 53.7 points in an expansion range and in Germany, it rose to 56.4 points. European preliminary inflation was -0.3%, lower than expected.

Other figures included:

  • German retail sales, which rose 3.7% year-on-year
  • Germany's preliminary annual inflation stood at -0.2% and suggested a growing deflationary threat in Europe
  • The unemployment rate in Germany was 6.3%, which is stable in terms of the past half of the year, but it was above 5.0% before the pandemic

The EUR/USD pair closed the week appreciating 0.8%.

JPY

The main Asian pair, USD/JPY, corrected slightly to 105-point level. Overall, this pair has remained below the 50-day moving average for more than 3 months, suggesting a continuing depreciation trend.

Economic data included industrial production volumes, which were -13.3% year-on-year.

Also in retail sales, the change was -1.9% year-on-year in August. The manufacturing PMI index was 47.7 points and increased moderately from last month's results, but still remained in negative territory.

USD/JPY ended the week trading depreciating -0.3%.

GBP

The British pound showed a strengthening trend against the U.S. dollar. Among the economic news was the performance of the manufacturing PMI index, which stood at 54.1 points and hinted at expansion and positive sentiment.

GBP/USD ended the week appreciating +1.5%.

Economic events

This week will start with August data of the service sector PMI index and European retail sales. U.S. international trade data will be released on Tuesday and Chinese on Wednesday, with investors watching very closely to see if global demand recovers.

Important news for Wednesday will be the minutes of the last U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, in which investors will look for hints on further monetary and stimulus policies

Germany's international trade figures will be released on Thursday, and changes in the economies of Japan and England will be released on Friday.

According to Admiral Markets market sentiment data:

  • 46% of investors have long positions in the EUR/USD pair (down -18 percentage points from last week's data)
  • In the main Asian pair USD/JPY, 30% of investors have long positions (down -15 percentage points)
  • In the GBP/USD pair, 43% of participants expect a rise (down -2 percentage points)

Such market data is interpreted as contraindicative, so EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD pairs are expected to rise. The analysis of positioning data needs to be combined with fundamental projections and technical analysis.

Sources: bloomberg.com, reuters.com, Admiral Markets MT4 Supreme Edition, investing.com


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