Your weekly fundamental view 2016.04.04

April 04, 2016 09:25
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Need to know

In this first week of Q2 2016, the Eurozone PPI and the Fed minutes are the highlights.

Coming up

On Monday 4 April we have Eurozone PPI data for February. The Producer Price Index or PPI is a measure of factory gate inflation, we have not had a positive read in this data since March 2015 and only two positive figures,MoM,since October 2014. Why should traders care? The ECB is trying stimulate Eurozone inflation through its €80 billion per month QE program. The central bank will want to see a return on its expenditure. Watch EUR USD support 1.1220: resistance 1.1405

Tuesday 5 April sees the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision. The RBA has held rates at 2% since May 2015, though the economy has produced limited growth since then. The central bank has been reluctant to reduce rates further. However markets still believe a cut during Q2 2016 is a possibility. Why should traders care? The Australian economy and currency are sensitive to China, commodity prices and a weaker US currency. Recent strength in the Aussie Dollar could be undone by any rate cut. Watch AUD USD support 0.7448: resistance 0.7745

Minutes of the FOMC meeting for March are released on Wednesday 5 April. The US Federal Reserve changed tack at its March meeting adopting a dovish tone towards US interest rates. Having previously suggested there could be multiple rises in 2016. Why should traders care? The meeting minutes may shed more light on the Fed's change of heart and the prospects for continued Dollar weakness in the weeks ahead. Watch Dollar Index (USDX) support 93.16 : resistance 95.59

Chart to watch: China 50 weekly


Chinese equities rallied in the latter stages of Q1 2016,bouncing from support at and around 8450. The China 50 index (shown above) has now started to test the resistance at 9680 but has yet to close convincingly above that barrier. Which on the weekly chart coincides with the 50 period EMA (yellow line above) and the downtrend line, drawn from the highs of 14 June 2015 at 14440. This has created an inflection point for the index that we should watch closely.