Your Weekly Fundamental View (28 August-1 September)
Need to Know
The upcoming trading week will see the release of several unemployment numbers and other key numbers, such as the inflation rate in Germany and China's PMI. The most important event of the week, however, is the announcement of US Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment rate.
Coming Up
Unemployment Rate in Japan on Tuesday, 29 August
The unemployment rate shows how many people failed to find employment in the past three months, as compared to the overall labour force.
Why should you care? Lower unemployment is beneficial for the economic health of Japan. The previous unemployment rate is 2.8%, with the current forecast remaining the same at 2.8% (*).
German GfK Consumer Confidence on Tuesday, 29 August
This is an index based on surveyed consumers. It asks about 2,000 consumers to evaluate the economic conditions in Germany in regard to personal finance, consumption, and overall economy.
Why should you care? Confidence is an important factor in the overall economy, which is a leading indicator in consumer spending. With the previous figure at 10.8, the current forecast promises 10.8 (*).
Inflation Rate in Germany on Wednesday, 23 August
The inflation rate is expected to be announced in Germany, which indicates whether the price of goods and services has changed. This inflation rate is used by central banks to assess whether they are getting closer to the official target of 2%.
Why should you care? The inflation rate is a key component in making decisions on the interest rate. The previous inflation rate is 1.7%, and the current forecast is for 1.8% (*).
ADP Employment Change in the U.S. on Wednesday, 23 August
The ADP figure indicates the change in the number of people who found employment in the previous month. This number does not include the farming industry or the government employees.
Why should you care? ADP provides services in payroll to US corporations, and they are able to analyse around 400,000 customers. The previous ADP employment change is 178k, with the current forecast standing at 183k (*).
NBS Manufacturing PMI in China on Thursday, 31 August
The PMI shows the Purchasing Managers' Index, which is an index based on the surveyed purchasing managers of the manufacturing industry.
Why should you care? A level above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, whereas a level below 50.0, contraction. The previous figure is 51.4 (*).
Unemployment Rates in the Eurozone and Germany on Thursday, 31 August
The unemployment rate shows how many people are unemployed in terms of the total labour force.
Why should you care? The unemployment rate is a general indication of overall economy. The previous unemployment rate in Germany is 5.7%, with the current forecast standing at the same point, 5.7% (*). The previous unemployment rate in the Eurozone is 9.1%, and the current forecast is 9.1% (*) as well.
Source: NFP Figures from 2012 to 2017
US Nonfarm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and Unemployment Rate on Friday, 1 September
The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) data represents the overall change in the number of the employed during the previous month, excluding the farming industry, while average hourly earnings represent the change in the price that businesses pay for labour, excluding the farming industry. The unemployment rate shows how many people are unemployed in regard to the total labour force.
Why should you care? The Federal Open Market Committee and traders usually pay more attention to the core data. The actual report coming better than the forecast is great for the currency. This is possibly the most traded news release. The key test for the Fed is to ensure that inflation is improving and full employment is maintained. The previous NFP figure is 209k, and the current forecast, 184k (*). The previous average hourly earnings rate is 0.3%, and the current forecast, 0.2 (*). The previous unemployment rate is 4.3%, with the forecast also being 4.3% (*).
