Your weekly fundamental view (Nov 7-11)

November 07, 2016 10:00


Need to know

Traders need to be aware of the US presidential election this week on Tuesday, 8 November 2016. The American voters will need to elect a new president and leader, who will replace current US President Barack Obama on January 2017. The two main candidates are Hillary Clinton, from the Democratic Party, and Donald Trump, from the Republican Party. For more information and analysis regarding the US elections, please visit our extensive blog article and the two live webinars which are scheduled before and after the election day.

Coming up

US presidential election on Tuesday, 8 November. American voters will be electing the 46th President of the United States. Based on early voting and exit polling, the winner will most likely be projected before the official vote count has been announced and completed. The first states are expected to report their voting numbers during the night (CET time zone) of Wednesday, 9 November. Usually by 5am CET, the overall winner is projected or known. The US President impacts fiscal, domestic, economic and foreign policies. Both the policies of Clinton and Trump and potential impact on the Forex and financial markets are intensively reviewed in our comprehensive special article and two live webinars this week.

Crude oil inventories will be released on Wednesday, 9 November. This is primarily a US indicator, but it also affects CAD due to Canada's huge energy sector. A build-up in crude oil inventories usually signals decreasing demand from refiners. On the other hand, a drop would signal that refiners are still producing at elevated levels and the inventory overhang in oil products could continue. Why should traders care? The price of petroleum products influences inflation, which impacts oil-dependent industries. Previous data showed 14.42M barrels.(*)

New Zealand interest rate on Wednesday, 9 November. The official interest rate is an important factor in the overall currency evaluation. Why should traders care? The official rate is one of the major drivers of long-term price movements. The decision is often explained in a related press conference and statement from the Governor of The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), who communicates the decision on monetary policy to the public. The RBNZ is expected to decrease the interest rate by a quarter percent, from 2% to 1.75%.(*)

US unemployment claims are released on Thursday, 10 November. These claims are the earliest national economic data, representing the number of individuals who filed for insurance for the first time during the past week. If the actual result is weaker than the forecast, it could be deemed good for the currency. Why should traders care? The number of unemployed people is an important signal of the overall economic health and could hint at the future monetary policy steps. Previous data showed 265k individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.(*)

(*) Calendar Admiral Markets