Your weekly fundamental view (Sept 26-30)

September 26, 2016 16:00


Need to know

Last week Wednesday, the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicated that the Federal Reserve (Fed) sees the US interest rate at 0.6 percent* and not at 0.9 percent as originally forecast in June. In the wake of the announcement, Fed chair J. Yellen is expected to speak twice this week.

Coming up

Various central bank presidents speak on Monday, Tuesday and Thursday, 26, 27 and 29 September. Swiss National Bank (SNB) chairman Jordan, Bank of Canada (BOC) governor Poloz, Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor Kuroda and European Central Bank (ECB) president Draghi all speak at different venues at the start of the week. For instance, Draghi will address the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament in Brussels.

Why should you care? Central bank presidents lead the main institution that manages the currency, money supply and interest rates of a state (or economic bloc) and their words are well-analysed for clues on future developments and expectations.

Fed chair speaks on Wednesday and Thursday, 28 and 29 September. Fed chair Yellen is speaking on Wednesday at the Committee on Financial Services and on Thursday at the Minority Bankers Forum.

Why should you care? Last week, the FOMC participants changed their outlook on the interest rate development in the upcoming years. When their current expectations are compared to earlier in June, the anonymous interest rate forecasts of Fed officials were lower.

Here is the current view of the FOMC participants on interest rate (September 2016):

IR 92016.png

Here is the previous view of the FOMC participants on interest rate (June 2016):

IR 62016.png
* CNBC source