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Bulls should be cautious: USD/JPY bears about to take charge

November 22, 2019 10:30


Economic Event

Source: Economic Events November 22, 2019 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

As we enter the weekly close, we want to focus on the USD/JPY once again. However, we don't expect to see any big moves from today's coming economic indications and the resulting elevated volatility.

This will likely not change over the next few days, as Thanksgiving and Black Friday are next week, reducing the chances of risk on/off driven moves in yield and currencies, especially in the JPY.

But recent fundamental developments left us with excitement in regards to the coming weeks, and has made the USD/JPY an exciting currency pair to analyse in our opinion.

With the Fed's balance sheet expanding at an increasingly faster rate than during QE1, QE2 or QE3, 10-year-US-Treasury yields losing their bullish momentum from the first two weeks of November, and rumours making rounds that the mood in Beijing about a trade deal is rather pessimistic (meaning, tensions between the US and China may be rising again), the USD/JPY bears are probably smelling a kind of advantage in the near-term.

It is speculated that China is getting more and more troubled after repeated signs that no tariff rollback seems to be coming soon (which especially China thought both economies had agreed on in principle), as the strategy switches to "talk only," and wait due to the recent impeachment developments around Trump.

In fact, this development is not a big surprise to us (as pointed out for example in one of our last weekly market outlooks), but reinforces our sceptical view of the USD/JPY in general.

That said, we still consider the Short-side in the USD/JPY to be more attractive from a risk-reward perspective, and don't see the recent spikes above 109.00/30 as sustainable, but instead to be potential fake-outs, resulting in the USD/JPY going for another stint to the region around 107.80/108.00.

Still, given our expectation around a subdued volatility outlook, we don't expect an aggressive attack at the region around 106.80/107.00, at least not for now respectively into the yearly close which would definitely increase chances of a sharper drop from a technical perspective as low as 105.00 and probably even lower:

USDJPY - Daily Chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY Daily chart (between September 13, 2018, to November 22, 2019). Accessed: November 22, 2019, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2014, the value of the USD/JPY increased by 13.7%, in 2015, it increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 4.1%.

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