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Will Friday’s data from the US set the stage for 1.1400 in the EUR/USD?

Juni 26, 2020 10:30

Source: Economic Events June 26, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar


After the EUR/USD re-tested the region around 1.1150/1200, the Euro took on bullish momentum again, quickly recapturing 1.1300.

A potential driver for this comes from recent unexpected European economic indications over the last few days, such as the Manufacturing PMI for France last Tuesday increasing to 52.1 for June, beating market forecasts of 46 and pointing to the biggest expansion in the manufacturing sector since September of 2018. There also was the German ifo Business Climate indicator last Wednesday, rising by 6.5 points from the previous month to a four-month high of 86.2, beating market expectations 85.0 and pointing to the largest monthly increase in the index ever.

While we certainly remain cautious in regards to the sustainability of these numbers after the Corona lockdown, the overall picture in the Euro against the US dollar stays definitely positive with the focus on the upside around 1.1400/50.

For the weekly close, US economic projections will be our focus, particularly regarding Personal Spending and Personal Income.

What will also be of interest is whether the tendency over the last weeks and the Citi US Economic Surprise Index hitting record high after record, continues.

If not, and 10-year US yields see another attempt to break below 0.60%, EUR/USD will likely see a deep green weekly close, bringing the region around 1.1400/50 into our focus into the end of the Q2 2020:

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on EUR/USD Daily chart (between April 26, 2019, to June 25, 2020). Accessed: June 25, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of the EUR/USD fell by 10.2%, in 2016, it fell by 3.2%, in 2017, it increased by 13.92%, 2018, it fell by 4.4%, 2019, it fell by 2.2%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 7.3%.


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