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Gold goes vertical, trading at its highest levels since 2013

Februar 26, 2020 11:00

Gold Bar

Economic Events

Source: Economic Events February 26, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

Driven by the latest economic developments in the US, as 30-year U.S. yields drop to record lows after the IHS Markit Flash Composite PMI last Friday came in at its lowest level since 2013, 10-year US yields breaking below 1.50%, and renewed fears around the Coronavirus, Gold went vertical and is trading at its highest levels since 2013.

While the technical mode looks very extended on the upside, and risk-reward ratios become more and more unattractive, we shouldn't forget that yield sensitive assets like the precious metal have a high level of trend stability.

That said, a direct break above 1,700 USD, especially if US economic data from the Housing markets disappoints, remains an option even though the dynamic of the move should be lower.

The reason for this being, that market participants now expect, with a likelihood of 75%, the Fed to cut rates twice or by 50 basis points in 2020, and already see three 25 basis points cut with a likelihood of around 40% (according to the Fed Watch Tool).

With that in mind, disappointing US data and a foreseeable US economic downturn is already priced in, and could at least result in Gold consolidating, even possibly at an elevated level.

Technically, if we get to see a correction, a potential long trigger can be found around 1,600/620 USD, with the daily trend support to be found around 1,535/545 USD and Gold staying bullish on a daily time-frame above that level.

Gold Daily chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on Gold Daily chart (between November 23, 2018, to February 25, 2020). Accessed: February 25, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of Gold fell by 10.4%, in 2016, it increased by 8.1%, in 2017, it increased by 13.1%, in 2018, it fell by 1.6%, in 2019, it increased by 18.9%, meaning that after five years, it was up by 28%.

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