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The USD/JPY is still above 107, but dropping US yields keeps the bearish pressure high

April 24, 2020 10:00

Stock market image

Economic Events

Source: Economic Events April 24, 2020 - Admiral Markets' Forex Calendar

Despite recent volatility in global oil markets, volatility in forex markets remained relatively low, particularly in the USD/JPY. In fact, it seems unlikely that this will change given the pretty thin economic calendar leading up to the weekly close.

Given the drop in the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US which dropped to 71 in April of 2020 from 89.1, there may be room for surprise. But with expectations for the final print to come in even lower at 68, much of worst-case scenario is likely already priced into the markets, including the USD/JPY.

Still, while the currency pair stays technically choppy, an overall bearish tendency remains.

The main reason for this bearishness is the continuing pressure on 10-year-US Treasury yields, which leaves room in the USD/JPY to test the short-term relevant region of support around 107.00.

A sustainable break wasn't seen yet, but if we get to see one in the days to come, probably with voices of a bailout of the badly hit US oil industry by the recent turbulence in the oil market growing louder.

A break below 107.00 would technically activate the region around 105.00 as a first target:

Daily Chart

Source: Admiral Markets MT5 with MT5-SE Add-on USD/JPY Daily chart (between March 1, 2019, to April 23, 2020). Accessed: April 23, 2020, at 10:00pm GMT - Please note: Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, or future performance.

In 2015, the value of USDJPY increased by 0.5%, in 2016, it fell by 2.8%, in 2017, it fell by 3.6%, in 2018, it fell by 2.7%, in 2019, it fell by 0.85%, meaning that after five years, it was down by 9.2%.

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